Recent months have brought an unusual quiet to the Bitcoin market. With the price range-bound between USD 109,000 and USD 120,000, the once-frequent discussions of “supply shocks” and dramatic price increases have noticeably subsided. Equally muted are the voices of the so-called Bitcoin Treasury Companies, which only a short while ago dominated financial commentary and were widely promoted as a novel means of gaining exposure to Bitcoin.
The question arises: has the market for these “Paper Bitcoin” products entered a period of decline?
Paper Bitcoin Summer
Each Bitcoin cycle has been accompanied by speculative alternatives. In 2013, it was altcoins; in 2017, initial coin offerings (ICOs); and in 2021, non-fungible tokens (NFTs). While each claimed some proximity to Bitcoin, none were equivalent to holding Bitcoin itself.
The present cycle has been marked by what commentators have termed “Paper Bitcoin Summer.” Instead of acquiring Bitcoin directly, investors have purchased shares in companies that accumulate Bitcoin on their balance sheets. The model, most prominently employed by MicroStrategy, involves raising debt or equity to purchase Bitcoin. As the company’s stock price increases, it becomes easier to raise additional capital, thereby creating a reinforcing cycle of accumulation.[1]
This strategy attracted companies across jurisdictions: MetaPlanet Inc. in Japan, The Smarter Web Company in the United Kingdom, and, in the United States, KindlyMD and the Trump Media & Technology Group. As of September 2025, 192 publicly traded companies collectively hold over one million Bitcoin.[2]
The key issue, however, is whether such investments will outperform direct ownership of Bitcoin.
Paper Bitcoin Winter
The evidence suggests otherwise. Many treasury company stocks have underperformed Bitcoin substantially since the height of “Paper Bitcoin Summer.”
- KindlyMD ($NAKA): Down over 96% since May 2025. A USD 10,000 investment would now be valued at approximately USD 400.[3]
- The Smarter Web Company ($TSWCF): Fell from USD 9 in June to USD 1.26, an 86% decline.[4]
- MetaPlanet ($MTPLF): Rose nearly 400% in May before retracing 77% to USD 3.62.[5]
- MicroStrategy (MSTR): The sector leader, with 639,835 Bitcoin, has achieved long-term success but still fell approximately 32% since July 2025.[6]
By comparison, Bitcoin itself has appreciated modestly—slightly over 2%—since the end of May 2025.[7] Investors seeking “exposure” to Bitcoin through these companies have, in many cases, experienced severe losses relative to holding Bitcoin directly.
The underperformance raises further questions: how would these highly leveraged entities fare in the event of a broader Bitcoin downturn? Could their financial structures, reliant on debt and market sentiment, amplify systemic risks?
Implications for Investors
Defenders of the sector may note that MicroStrategy’s five-year performance has significantly outpaced Bitcoin itself.[8] Moreover, for investors whose retirement funds are restricted to traditional securities, such companies may provide one of the few available avenues for indirect Bitcoin exposure.
Nevertheless, the data suggests caution. Treasury companies remain vulnerable to equity market dynamics, debt servicing risks, and corporate governance issues. In contrast, Bitcoin as an asset is free from counterparty risk and independent of the legacy financial system.
Rethinking Retirement Structures
This raises broader questions regarding the adequacy of conventional retirement and savings vehicles. Traditional pension funds and retirement accounts, long regarded as secure, operate within a fiat-denominated system subject to continuous debasement. Furthermore, such accounts restrict liquidity for decades, a disadvantage when compared with the flexibility of direct Bitcoin ownership.
Bitcoin has consistently demonstrated extraordinary compound annual growth and offers unique advantages: independence from government monetary policy, protection against inflationary erosion, and freedom from the solvency risks of institutional intermediaries.[9] For investors focused on long-term wealth preservation, these characteristics provide a compelling rationale to prioritise direct Bitcoin acquisition over derivative or corporate exposures.
Conclusion
For those whose capital remains constrained within the traditional financial system, selective investment in Bitcoin treasury companies may be defensible. MicroStrategy’s performance illustrates the potential. Yet caution is warranted: investing one’s retirement savings in smaller firms with limited business fundamentals exposes investors to risks far beyond those inherent in Bitcoin itself.
The lesson is clear. “Paper Bitcoin” may serve as a temporary market phenomenon, but Bitcoin itself remains the only certain foundation for long-term financial security.
Overview
This article analyses the rise and recent decline of Bitcoin treasury companies—publicly traded entities that acquire Bitcoin on balance sheet, thereby offering shareholders indirect exposure.
The strategy, pioneered by MicroStrategy in 2020, created what became known as “Paper Bitcoin Summer.” Companies across the globe sought to replicate the approach, with over 192 now holding more than one million Bitcoin collectively.[2] The model was initially attractive: as Bitcoin’s value rose, corporate share prices increased, enabling further fundraising and additional Bitcoin acquisitions.
However, performance since mid-2025 has been disappointing. KindlyMD has lost over 96% of its value, The Smarter Web Company has fallen 86%, and Japan’s MetaPlanet has declined by 77%. Even MicroStrategy, the sector leader, has fallen approximately 32% since July.[3][4][5][6] By comparison, Bitcoin itself gained just over 2% during the same period.[7]
The underperformance highlights the risk of treating equity securities as substitutes for Bitcoin. Unlike Bitcoin, corporate entities carry debt obligations, governance risks, and vulnerability to equity market sentiment. For investors whose retirement funds cannot hold Bitcoin directly, such stocks may provide some exposure, but they remain a poor replacement.
The article concludes that Bitcoin itself, free from counterparty and systemic risk, remains the superior vehicle for long-term wealth preservation. Treasury companies may reflect investor enthusiasm in particular cycles, but only Bitcoin offers the certainty of a truly independent monetary asset.
References
- MicroStrategy Inc., Investor Relations – Bitcoin Strategy Overview (2024).
- bitcointreasuries.net, Public Companies Holding Bitcoin (accessed Sept 2025).
- Nasdaq Market Data, KindlyMD ($NAKA) Historical Performance (Sept 2025).
- London Stock Exchange Data, The Smarter Web Company ($TSWCF) (Sept 2025).
- Tokyo Stock Exchange Data, MetaPlanet Inc. ($MTPLF) (Sept 2025).
- Yahoo Finance, MicroStrategy Inc. ($MSTR) (Sept 2025).
- CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin Historical Price Data (Sept 2025).
- PortfoliosLab, Stock Comparison: MSTR vs BTC (2025).
- Yermack, D. (2015). Is Bitcoin a Real Currency? An Economic Appraisal. Handbook of Digital Currency.
Source: Summary article by The Bitcoin Way